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Montane snowpack in the Sierra Nevada provides critical water resources for ecological functions and downstream communities. Forest removal allows us to manage the snowpack in montane forests and mitigate the effect of climate on water resources. Little is known about the mid- to long-term effects that changing snowpack following forest disturbance has on tree re-growth, and how tree re-growth might in turn affect snowpack accumulation and melt. We use a 1-m resolution process-based snow model (SnowPALM) coupled with a stand-scale ecohydrological model (RHESSys) that resolves water, energy and carbon cycling to represent tree growth, and to quantify how trees and snowpack co-evolve following two disturbance scenarios (thinning and clearcutting) over a period of 40 years in a small 100 m x 234 m mid-elevation forested area in the Sierra Nevada, California. We first calculate the impact of forest disturbance on the snowpack assuming no tree regrowth and then we compare it with scenarios that include the feedback of trees regrowth on the snowpack. Without tree regrowth, snow accumulation and melt volume increase on average by roughly 5 % and 13 % following thinning and clearcutting, respectively. With tree regrowth, a regrowth rate of 0.75 and 1.15 m/decade are found for thinning and clearcutting, respectively, along with a decrease of melt volumes of 2.5 to 0.9 mm/decade, respectively. About 50 % of the snowmelt volume gains from forest thinning are lost after 40 years of regrowth, whereas only about 7 % is lost from clearcutting after the same period, which are largely explained by changes to canopy interception and sublimation. This proof-of-concept study is expected to shed light into the coevolution of montane forests and snowpack response to forest disturbance. 

Globally, winter temperatures are rising, and snowpack is shrinking or disappearing entirely. Despite previous research and published literature reviews, it remains unknown whether biomes across the globe will cross important thresholds in winter temperature and precipitation that will lead to significant ecological changes. Here, we combine the widely used Köppen–Geiger climate classification system with worst-case-scenario projected changes in global monthly temperature and precipitation to illustrate how multiple climatic zones across Earth may experience shifting winter conditions by the end of this century. We then examine how these shifts may affect ecosystems within corresponding biomes. Our analysis demonstrates potential widespread losses of extreme cold (<−20°C) in Arctic, boreal, and cool temperate regions. We also show the possible disappearance of freezing temperatures (<0°C) and large decreases in snowfall in warm temperate and dryland areas. We identify important and potentially irreversible ecological changes associated with crossing these winter climate thresholds. 

Snowmelt is a critical water resource in the Sierra Nevada impactingpopulations in California and Nevada. In this region, forest managersuse treatments like selective thinning to encourage resilient ecosystemsbut rarely prioritize snowpack retention due to a lack of simplerecommendations and the importance of other management objectives likewildfire mitigation and wildlife habitat. We use light detection andranging (lidar) data collected over multiple snow accumulation seasonsin the Sagehen Creek Basin, central Sierra Nevada in California, USA, toinvestigate how snowpack accumulation and ablation are affected byforest structure metrics at coarse, stand-scales (e.g., fraction ofvegetation, or fVEG) and fine, tree-scales (e.g., a modified leaf areaindex, and the ratio of gap-width to average tree height). Using a newlydeveloped lidar point cloud filtering method and an “open-areareference” approach, we show that for each 10% decrease in fVEG thereis a ~30% increase in snow accumulation and a~15% decrease in ablation rate at the Sagehen fieldsite. To understand variability around these relationships, we use arandom forest analysis to demonstrate that areas with fVEG greater than~30% have the greatest potential increased accumulationresponse after forest removal. This spatial information allows us toassess the utility of completed and planned forest restorationstrategies in targeting areas with the highest potential snowpackresponse. Our new lidar processing methods and reference-based approachare easily transferrable to other areas where they could improvedecision support and increase water availability from landscape-scaleforest restoration projects. 

Abstract. Large sample datasets are transforming the catchment sciences, but there are few off-the-shelf stream water chemistry datasets with complementary atmospheric deposition, streamflow, meteorology, and catchment physiographic attributes. The existing CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) dataset includes data on topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soil, and geology across the continental US. With CAMELS-Chem, we pair these existing attribute data for 516 catchments with atmospheric deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and water chemistry and instantaneous discharge data from the US Geological Survey over the period from 1980 through 2018 in a relational database and corresponding dataset. The data include 18 common stream water chemistry constituents: Al, Ca, Cl, dissolved organic carbon, total organic carbon, HCO3, K, Mg, Na, total dissolved N, total organic N, NO3, dissolved oxygen, pH (field and lab), Si, SO4, and water temperature. Annual deposition loads and concentrations include hydrogen, NH4, NO3, total inorganic N, Cl, SO4, Ca, K, Mg, and Na. We demonstrate that CAMELS-Chem water chemistry data are sampled effectively across climates, seasons, and discharges for trend analysis and highlight the coincident sampling of stream constituents for process-based understanding. To motivate their use by the larger scientific community across a variety of disciplines, we show examples of how these publicly available datasets can be applied to trend detection and attribution, biogeochemical process understanding, and new hypothesis generation via data-driven techniques. 

Abstract Water temperatures in mountain streams are likely to rise under future climate change, with negative impacts on ecosystems and water quality. However, it is difficult to predict which streams are most vulnerable due to sparse historical records of mountain stream temperatures as well as complex interactions between snowpack, groundwater, streamflow and water temperature. Minimum flow volumes are a potentially useful proxy for stream temperature, since daily streamflow records are much more common. We confirmed that there is a strong inverse relationship between annual low flows and peak water temperature using observed data from unimpaired streams throughout the montane regions of the United States' west coast. We then used linear models to explore the relationships between snowpack, potential evapotranspiration and other climate‐related variables with annual low flow volumes and peak water temperatures. We also incorporated previous years' flow volumes into these models to account for groundwater carryover from year to year. We found that annual peak snowpack water storage is a strong predictor of summer low flows in the more arid watersheds studied. This relationship is mediated by atmospheric water demand and carryover subsurface water storage from previous years, such that multi‐year droughts with high evapotranspiration lead to especially low flow volumes. We conclude that watershed management to help retain snow and increase baseflows may help counteract some of the streamflow temperature rises expected from a warming climate, especially in arid watersheds. 

Abstract. Climate warming will cause mountain snowpacks to melt earlier, reducing summer streamflow and threatening water supplies and ecosystems. Quantifying how sensitive streamflow timing is to climate change and where it is most sensitive remain key questions. Physically based hydrological models are often used for this purpose; however, they have embedded assumptions that translate into uncertain hydrological projections that need to be quantified and constrained to provide reliable inferences. The purpose of this study is to evaluate differences in projected end-of-century changes to streamflow timing between a new empirical model based on diel (daily) streamflow cycles and regional land surface simulations across the mountainous western USA. We develop an observational technique for detecting streamflow responses to snowmelt using diel cycles of incoming solar radiation and streamflow to detect when snowmelt occurs. We measure the date of the 20th percentile of snowmelt days (DOS20) across 31 western USA watersheds affected by snow, as a proxy for the beginning of snowmelt-initiated streamflow. Historic DOS20 varies from mid-January to late May among our sites, with warmer basins having earlier snowmelt-mediated streamflow. Mean annual DOS20 strongly correlates with the dates of 25 % and 50 % annual streamflow volume (DOQ25 and DOQ50, both R2=0.85), suggesting that a 1 d earlier DOS20 corresponds with a 1 d earlier DOQ25 and 0.7 d earlier DOQ50. Empirical projections of future DOS20 based on a stepwise multiple linear regression across sites and years under the RCP8.5 scenario for the late 21st century show that DOS20 will occur on average 11±4 d earlier per 1 ∘C of warming. However, DOS20 in colder watersheds (mean November–February air temperature, TNDJF<-8 ∘C) is on average 70 % more sensitive to climate change than in warmer watersheds (TNDJF>0 ∘C). Moreover, empirical projections of DOQ25 and DOQ50 based on DOS20 are about four and two times more sensitive to climate change, respectively, than those simulated by a state-of-the-art land surface model (NoahMP-WRF) under the same scenario. Given the importance of changes in streamflow timing for water resources, and the significant discrepancies found in projected streamflow sensitivity, snowmelt detection methods such as DOS20 based on diel streamflow cycles may help to constrain model parameters, improve hydrological predictions, and inform process understanding. 

Abstract The Sierra Nevada has experienced unprecedented wildfires and reduced snowmelt runoff in recent decades, due partially to anthropogenic climate change and over a century of fire suppression. To address these challenges, public land agencies are planning forest restoration treatments, which have the potential to both increase water availability and reduce the likelihood of uncontrollable wildfires. However, the impact of forest restoration on snowpack is site specific and not well understood across gradients of climate and topography. To improve our understanding of how forest restoration might impact snowpack across diverse conditions in the central Sierra Nevada, we run the high‐resolution (1 m) energy and mass balance Snow Physics and Lidar Mapping (SnowPALM) model across five 23–75 km²subdomains in the region where forest thinning is planned or recently completed. We conduct two virtual thinning experiments by removing all trees shorter than 10 or 20 m tall and rerunning SnowPALM to calculate the change in meltwater input. Our results indicate heterogeneous responses to thinning due to differences in climate and wind across our five central Sierra Nevada subdomains. We also predict the largest increases in snow retention when thinning forests with tall (7–20 m) and dense (40–70% canopy cover) trees, highlighting the importance of pre‐thinning vegetation structure. We develop a decision support tool using a random forests model to determine which regions would most benefit from thinning. In many locations, we expect major forest restoration to increase snow accumulation, while other areas with short and sparse canopies, as well as sunny and windy climates, are more likely to see decreased snowpack following thinning. Our decision support tool provides stand‐scale (30 m) information to land managers across the central Sierra Nevada region to best take advantage of climate and existing forest structure to obtain the greatest snowpack benefits from forest restoration. 

Understanding and predicting catchment responses to a regional disturbance is difficult because catchments are spatially heterogeneous systems that exhibit unique moderating characteristics. Changes in precipitation composition in the Northeastern U.S. is one prominent example, where reduction in wet and dry deposition is hypothesized to have caused increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export from many northern hemisphere forested catchments; however, findings from different locations contradict each other. Using shifts in acid deposition as a test case, we illustrate an iterative “process and pattern” approach to investigate the role of catchment characteristics in modulating the steam DOC response. We use a novel dataset that integrates regional and catchment-scale atmospheric deposition data, catchment characteristics and co-located stream Q and stream chemistry data. We use these data to investigate opportunities and limitations of a pattern-to-process approach where we explore regional patterns of reduced acid deposition, catchment characteristics and stream DOC response and specific soil processes at select locations. For pattern investigation, we quantify long-term trends of flow-adjusted DOC concentrations in stream water, along with wet deposition trends in sulfate, for USGS headwater catchments using Seasonal Kendall tests and then compare trend results to catchment attributes. Our investigation of climatic, topographic, and hydrologic catchment attributes vs. directionality of DOC trends suggests soil depth and catchment connectivity as possible modulating factors for DOC concentrations. This informed our process-to-pattern investigation, in which we experimentally simulated increased and decreased acid deposition on soil cores from catchments of contrasting long-term DOC response [Sleepers River Research Watershed (SRRW) for long-term increases in DOC and the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO) for long-term decreases in DOC]. SRRW soils generally released more DOC than SSHCZO soils and losses into recovery solutions were higher. Scanning electron microscope imaging indicates a significant DOC contribution from destabilizing soil aggregates mostly from hydrologically disconnected landscape positions. Results from this work illustrate the value of an iterative process and pattern approach to understand catchment-scale response to regional disturbance and suggest opportunities for further investigations.